In Yogi Versus Bhaiya, It’s Advantage Bhaiya in UP 2022
The buzz across rural hinterlands in Uttar Pradesh is that the in upcoming assembly elections in February-March 2022, there will be a direct contest between the Samajwadi Party led by “Bhaiya” aka Akhilesh Yadav, and the Bhartiya Janta Party led by “Yogi” aka Ajay Singh Bisht. It is the authors' contention that a presidential-style contest will suit Akhilesh Yadav while a contest on party lines will suit the incumbent Chief Minister.
First, let us examine the merit of the assertion that 2022 will be a direct contest between the Samajwadi Party and the Bhartiya Janta Party. The results of the recently concluded Panchayat elections could provide a sneak preview into the prevailing mood of the electorate, although we need to interpret these results with caution as panchayat elections are not contested on party symbols, though various parties support their respective candidates. The Samajwadi Party secured the pole position in these elections with Samajwadi party supported candidates winning in more than 1000 Zila panchayat seats with Bhartiya Janta Party being a distant second with just about 600 seats. In the by-polls held since the Yogi government took over, it has consistently been the Samajwadi party that has emerged as the primary contender to Bhartiya Janta Party whereas all other parties, notably the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress have slid into insignificance. Even in the Legislative Council elections, which are largely regarded as elections favoring the ruling dispensation, the Samajwadi Party won three seats, most notably Varanasi i.e. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency.
A recent survey by Prashnam seems to further buttress the hypothesis that among other reasons, the mishandling of COVID has unleashed a deep-seated resentment against the BJP and Yogi, among the masses. As per the survey, 2/3rd of the respondents held the central and the state government responsible for the loss of their near and dear ones with Uttar Pradesh showing the highest cumulative dissatisfaction among the 6 large states surveyed.
Thus, it is safe to conclude that in 2022 the contest will be between the incumbent BJP under Ajay Singh Bisht and a resurgent SP under Akhilesh Yadav.
SP Vs. BJP OR Yogi Vs. Bhaiya
It is perhaps important at this stage to dwell on the question, “Whether 2022 will be a contest between SP and BJP at the party level or it will turn into a presidential-style contest between Yogi and Akhilesh?”
The answer to this question depends upon which side of the fence you are standing on. The BJP would very much like 2022 to be a contest between SP and BJP rather than a personality contest between Yogi and Akhilesh. This is because in a party-level contest the narrative can be expanded to appropriate the purported successes of the BJP at the center as well as other states, into the state narrative to counter some of the negative perceptions. Secondly, the Sangh Parivar affiliates will also be much more willing to contribute in a BJP versus SP contest rather than a Yogi versus Akhilesh contest as the former gives them space to be a factor in the outcome, a formulation that has been denied to them in the four years of Yogi rule. Lastly the detractors of Yogi within the BJP, and there are many, would be much more comfortable with the party level rather than individual narrative focused on Yogi.
On the Other hand, the Samajwadi party would love a presidential-style contest. The reasons are many. Firstly, the biggest reason is Akhilesh himself who is seen as the new face of SP and is bereft of the earlier baggage of SP. Secondly, in his stint as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh from 2012 to 2017, Akhilesh has been associated with many development and infrastructure projects, most notably the Agra expressway, the metro projects across major cities, and the development of health facilities across the state. In contrast, be it, farmers or students, unemployment or industry, the Adityanath government doesn’t have much beyond empty PR rhetoric to show. Thus, a presidential-style contest would invariably help the SP highlight the difference between the development record of the two leaders while putting the spotlight on the ineptness of Yogi Adityanath in handling the second wave of COVID. Lastly, just like West Bengal, an Akhilesh versus Yogi contest would help consolidate the anti-BJP vote and prevent a split of the vote among opposition parties. This is because unlike in the general elections, the voters of Uttar Pradesh, in Akhilesh, do have a genuine option to vote for change!
In Yogi Versus Bhaiya, Bhaiya has the edge!
Thus, the best bet for the Samajwadi party would be to convert the 2022 contest into a Presidential contest between “Bhaiya” and “Yogi”. In such a contest, brand “Akhilesh” with its clean image and a record of good governance, would hold a distinct advantage over brand “Yogi,” with its sullied governance record and checkered legal history. The fact that during COVID, issues like “Development” and “Healthcare” have become a lived experience of the people, has dented the appeal of Hindutva, especially when it comes at the cost of development.
In conclusion, in the do-or-die battle for Uttar Pradesh, between brand Yogi and brand Bhaiya, brand “Bhaiya” has the edge today. However, the opposition cannot afford to be complacent as BJP and RSS are masters in shaping narratives and eight months is a long time in politics. If Akhilesh succeeds in making this election into a binary between himself and Yogi, then it may be “Advantage Bhaiya,” come 2022.